Previous Election
Murkowski following her 2010 reelection victory
Lisa Murkowski was reelected in an unusual manner in 2010 after losing the Republican primary to Tea Party candidate Joe Miller, but winning the general election as a write-in candidate, making her the first Senate candidate to win via write-in campaign since 1954, according to the New York Times. She won with a 4-point margin over Miller and 16 points over the Democratic candidate Scott McAdams. However, Murkowski managed to win just 39.5% of Alaskan votes due to the divide among the party caused by her write-in campaign. Therefore, Murkowski should prioritize winning the support of the party during the 2016 race to avoid such a crisis again, and a victory in the primaries would almost guarantee a larger vote than in 2010. Her need to appeal to Republican voters could easily encourage her to engage in more partisan politics, as she has long been criticized for appearing as a "Republican In Name Only" due to her stances on several social issues by critics such as her 2010 opponent Joe Miller and political commentator and radio host Rush Limbaugh.
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2016 Election Outlook and Predictions
According to Alaskan political blogger and reporter Amanda Coyne, Lisa Murkowski has announced her intention to run for reelection in 2016. However, victory in the Republican primary is, once again, far from certain. Joe Miller, who won the party's nominee in the previous race, has been suspected of "playing nicely" with the GOP in order to gain support for another Senatorial run in 2016 by numerous accounts, including Alaskan political pundit and journalist Mike Dingman and Congressional news site The Hill, the largest cirulating new publication on Capitol Hill. As for the Democratic candidate, former Senator Mark Begich has been suspected to win the party's nomination, or at least run, according to several reporters from The Hill and The Washington Post.
Nevertheless, Murkowski has generally enjoyed a favorable outlook among her constituents. In her most recent public approval poll, conducted by publicopinionpolling.com, regarded by The Hill as the most accurate polling firm in 2012, she has had a net approval rating of 8 points. Then, when her various incumbency advantages, such as franking privilege and greater name recognition, are combined with Alaska's Republican preferences, I predict that Murkowski should not have much of a struggle with reelection, even if Joe Miller divides Republican voters yet again.
Tea Party candidate Joe Miller
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2012 Presidential Election
Murkowski endorsed Mitt Romney in the last Presidential election, according to Politico, which was consistent with Alaska's voting history in Presidential elections in its relatively short history as a U.S State. Only once in the state's entire history has it not voted for the Republican Presidential candidate, which was in 1964. The fact that her 2016 reelection race falls in a Presidential year means that the Presidential race will most likely capture most of the attention among voters. The result could mean less transparency and knowledge regarding the Senatorial election due to less coverage, and the Senatorial candidates could make their party's candidate in the Presidential race a major talking point in their own campaign.
After running against Obama's economic policies in 2010,
Murkowski lent her full support to Mitt Romney in 2012
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Campaign Finances
As of December 31st 2014, Murkowski had raised up to $5.8 million in the 2013-14 cycle , according to opensecrets.org. Of those finances, she has spent just over $5.2 million. By comparison, Miller has raised only a little over $431,000 in the same year, giving Murkowski a clear financial advantage. Democrat Mark Begich, while still not declared to be running, has around $4.7 million totaled in contributions from 2013-2014.
Murkowski's top contributors consist of companies such as Edison Chouest Offshore, Constellation Energy, and ConocoPhillips among others. In terms of industries, her top contributors are Electric Utilities, Oil and gas, and lobbyists.
Murkowski's top financial contributors
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Major Issues
As previously stated, the fact that Murkowski's seat is up for reelection in the same year as Presidential election means that endorsements and discussions of Presidential candidates and campaigns could become a major topic in Senatorial debates. For instance, Murkowski, in an attempt to appeal to the party, may endorse and argue in favor of the Republican Presidential candidate to try and win the votes of her Republican constituents. Furthermore, On the Issues, a site documenting the stances of various politicians and voters, documented that most positions in the 2014 Alaska Senate race were on social issues such as abortion, "principles and values", and civil rights. This will most likely continue in the 2016 race, especially if Miller runs again, as Murkowski's view on various social issues, such as her pro-choice stance on abortion, has been the main targets of criticism from her party.
